Cause and Effect in European Politics and Law

A Final Solution of the Debt Crisis We Can Expect As Early As Spring

Adelina Marini, November 20, 2011

In spite of the desire for a quicker solution of the crisis, it seems that it will stay a while among the headlines. As early as spring or the middle of next year it could be expected some concrete solutions to be found, is the forecast of macro economist Dimitar Ashikov and Vladimir Shopov, a political scientist in Bulgaria. They have made this forecast in the latest edition of euoutside - the weekly debate on the debt crisis, which euinside holds in a Coffee Roasting Boutique in Sofia, owned by Mr Ashikov (for now only for the Bulgarian audience). In the short-term Mr Ashikov thinks that pressure on Italy and Spain will continue and the European Central Bank (the ECB) will continue to buy up bonds, and to maintain prices because this is the only tool that can force these countries to implement the promised reforms. He also thinks that pressure on France will continue from time to time in the upcoming months but the biggest danger for Paris will remain its credit rating.

Regarding the long-term measures that are being discussed right now and are related to treaty changes Vladimir Shopov has forecast that part of the measures will be passed under Article 136 from the Treaty that allows the eurozone member countries to enhance the integrational processes among themselves. This will not be a big problem for the other 10 countries outside the monetary union, he said. More radical solutions, however, could be taken in the mid-term and not under market pressure, the analysts think.